{"id":9612,"date":"2022-09-17T06:16:29","date_gmt":"2022-09-17T10:16:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/kerryhannon.com\/?p=9612"},"modified":"2022-09-17T06:16:29","modified_gmt":"2022-09-17T10:16:29","slug":"social-security-cola-bump-may-not-be-as-big-as-expected","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/kerryhannon.com\/?p=9612","title":{"rendered":"Social Security COLA bump may not be as big as expected"},"content":{"rendered":"
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While analysts earlier this summer had forecast a nearly double-digit percentage increase in monthly Social Security benefits next year, it appears that retirees will have to settle for a bit less.<\/span><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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While inflation in August did not cool as much as expected \u2013 with the Consumer Price Index up\u00a08.3<\/a>% over the last 12 months compared with 8.5% in July \u2014 the measure that the Social Security Administration (SSA) uses to calculate the cost-of-living adjustment, or COLA, fell even more.<\/p>\n

The Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers\u200c (CPI-W) increased 8.7% year over year in August, down from 9.1% in July. As a result, the Social Security cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) for 2023 will likely be an increase of 8.7%, according to estimates from the\u00a0Senior Citizens League<\/a>. That\u2019s down from 9.6% to 10% that analysts estimated in August.<\/p>\n

\u201cThis month was bad news for inflation because we saw core prices were very hot, but it’s also bad news for COLAs because the CPI-W went down,\u201d Marc Goldwein, senior vice president and senior policy director at the nonprofit\u00a0Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget,<\/a>\u00a0told Yahoo Money. \u201cGas prices are weighted more heavily in the CPI-W relative to the other measures and that’s probably what’s driving it down.\u201d<\/p>\n

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The final COLA is\u00a0calculated\u00a0<\/a>by averaging together the CPI-W consumer price index for the third quarter of the year \u2013 July, August, and September of 2022 \u2013 and then comparing that figure with the same data last year. The Social Security Administration is expected to announce the COLA on October 13 after the release of the September consumer price index data.<\/p>\n

An 8.7% bump still is uncommon and would be the largest since\u00a01981<\/a>, when the COLA was 11.2%. A COLA of 8.7% would ramp up the average retiree benefit of $1,656 by $144.10 per month.<\/p>\n

Other experts are in line with this forecast.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe now expect the COLA for next year will probably be closer to 9%, maybe even 8.5%, depending on what happens next month,\u201d Goldwein said.<\/p>\n

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